OGNI // PAD-AA-Projection 07173307-FED
18 Jul 2021SSNAKE666
The Office of Guild Naval IntelligenceProjections and Assessments Division: ARCHANGEL
Following the Insurrection of Azaladshu, along with the 3 systems which followed (LFT 824, LHS 277 and LTT 3919 respectively) against the Federation, the stability of the Federal block has come into question. From a military standpoint the loss of a few systems barely warrants a glance. Systems change hands constantly in the great game, local governments rise and fall and rise again. A system can change from a Federal friendly government to an Imperial one in the span of four days. The combined population of the four systems which have rebelled measures approximately 60 million. Not an insignificant number, but also not overly so. Militarily, the systems were mainly industrial hubs, however the loss of manufacturing capacity is not a crippling one.
Politically however, this situation is explosive, and calls into question the long term stability of Federal control. It also raises a single major question, which when examined lead to problematic possibilities.
How was the might of the Federal Navy incapable of bringing one system to heel?
The efforts of independent pilots cannot be discounted out of hand. However the Federal Navy has a massive fleet capacity to bring to bear, enough based on estimated force projections, data gleaned from open and secure sources, as well as various HUMINT, SIGINT, and COMINT sources, as well as encounters between [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] during various engagements over [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] to have mitigated the efforts of independent pilots.
Guild Navy personnel on site as well as various reports from various intelligence sources indicate that the performance of the Federal Navy forces at Azaladshu performed at a level of skill that was subpar for what is to be expected. Based on this, as well as observed unit markings on the deployed Federal vessels, indicates that the Federal forces deployed were mainly reservists, not the front line naval units one would expect be deployed to pacify an unruly system.
This leads to the question: Why would the Federal Navy deploy subpar units to a large scale engagement?
There are two major possibilities to this. The first is only slightly less concerning than the second: simple hubris could have led President Hudson to underestimate the intensity of opposition that Federal forces would face. On it's face this is not worrisome. However if President Hudson was not able to accurately gauge the amount of outrage his administration's surveillance bill had engendered, especially given that the surveillance would have enabled the administration to monitor this outrage, and thereby expect a heavy opposition to any attempt to keep control in Azaladshu, that raises questions about his ability to lead. His actions in this scenario are those of an unstable, egomaniacal, and shortsighted (beyond standard parameters) leader. Considering there is a 93% certainty that his rise to power was orchestrated by a Machiavellian plot to assassinate his predecessor, this would indicate a large decline of his mental faculties. A massive galactic superpower being led by an unstable man has a 42% chance of leading to a massive war breaking out, either between the Federation and Empire (82%) or degenerating into a civil war (71%) which would reshape the face of galactic power as we know it. ARCHANGEL projection of the likelihood of this scenario overall is 19%.
The second possibility is far more concerning and more likely based on data gathered from the conflict, various sources, and projections by ARCHANGEL regarding [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] which would indicate that the Federal Navy deliberately withheld it's stronger forces and deliberately deployed a sacrificial unit of reservists and rear echelon forces to what FEDCOM knew would be a fight against overwhelming odds that units of such lackluster quality could not win. The surveillance apparatus enacted by the Federation would undoubtedly have granted advanced warning of the level of public dissatisfaction as well as the buildup of opposing forces by independent pilots and the insurgent forces in Azaladshu. The surveillance apparatus in fact would not have been necessary since the buildup was done openly in defiance.
This would mean that the Federal Navy is engaged in a policy of carefully husbanding top tier naval assets. To the point that an open insurrection is not important enough to warrant the deployment of top tier naval assets. It cannot be overstated how damaging politically the insurrection has been. Systems long dissatisfied with Federal control may see an opportunity to rebel. Imperial agents may attempt to induce other systems to leave the Federation. Citizens across the Federation have according to gathered data, lost a large degree of confidence in Federal leadership. The conservation of Federal naval assets therefore must be of a higher importance than maintaining the faith in Federal leadership and the integrity of the Federation as a whole. It is highly likely that they are maintaining their naval strength in anticipation of the coming of [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] as well as the inevitable encounter with the remnants of [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G]. ARCHANGEL projection of the likelihood of this scenario is 81%.
The likelihood of [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] as well as the likelihood of discovering the remnants of [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] are both equally problematic. If both of these conditions occur then it is probable that the [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G] overwhelming odds which would [REDACTED per NAVSECDIR 7742-G]. As such, the pace of Operation REDOUBT must be intensified in light of this data. COG and COS plans should be updated accordingly.