OGNI // PAD-AA-Projection 07173307-FED // Addendum
22 Jul 2021SSNAKE666
The Office of Guild Naval IntelligenceProjections and Assessments Division: ARCHANGEL
The situation regarding Federal stability has progressed along expected paths. More and more dissatisfied systems are progressing towards open rebellion against the Federation government. The likelihood of an internecine conflict occurring is steadily rising. The Federal authority is responding predictably, with targeted FIA arrests against ringleaders on the public front.
As expected, outside of media coverage, OGNI assets have reported a spike in deaths [ship/shuttle accidents, vehicle accidents, random acts of violence, and several mass shootings] of various persons of interest. It is apparent that the FIA is moving to liquidate problematic assets in systems likely to secede from the Federation. So far, 27 persons of interest have been neutralized, not counting collateral damage incurred during these operations.
It is highly likely that there will be another outbreak of open warfare before the end of the year in regards to this particular matter. ARCHANGEL indicates that this conflict will follow the patterns of the first, with the deployment of subpar units to engage in the fighting. More systems will likely pull away from the Federation, weakening it's position, unless independent pilots decide to back the Federal Navy's attempt at holding onto the systems. ARCHANGEL rates this possibility as low. It appears that as of now, the retention of prime naval assets is of the utmost importance to FEDCOM. The primary mode of retaliation appears to be dubious arrests and extrajudicial assassination for now. ARCHANGEL will continue monitoring the situation.